Track record · live results only
Every pick, settled the evening it runs
Each pick is made before the off and settled at starting price, 1 point level stakes. 22 days from Sat 19 Sep to Sat 10 Oct, 900 races settled. No back-tests.
Races settled
900
22 racing days
Top pick strike rate
25.5%
220 winners from 864 · 448 placed
Top pick profit at SP
−84.84 pts
return on stakes −9.82%
Model accuracy
2.10 v 1.92
ours against the market's, over 900 races; lower is better
Top pick + Danger
Our two main picks together, against the market's two favourites in the same 822 races
Winner found by our pair
43.3%
356 of 822 races
Market's two favourites
52.4%
431 of 822 races
Backing both of ours at SP
−11.91%
against −19.16% backing the two favourites
Days at 50% or more
5 of 22
best 60.9% on Sun 27 Sep
- Top pick or Danger won
- Market's two favourites won
By the price you take
The picks as they were published at each time, at that time's prices. A pick that didn't run is void; the market's two favourites at that moment are settled on the same terms.
| Price taken | Days | Races | Winner found | Our pair | Two favourites | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day-before pricetaken at the price shown; no best odds guaranteed the night before | 17 of 22 | 703 | 42.2% | +11.27% | −19.55% | +30.82 pts |
| 8am price + best odds guaranteedthe better of the race-morning price and SP | 21 of 22 | 845 | 42.8% | +4.19% | −8.49% | +12.67 pts |
| Starting pricewhat the rest of this page uses | 22 of 22 | 822 | 43.3% | −11.91% | −19.16% | +7.25 pts |
- Returns are profit per point staked. Bookmakers can restrict accounts that take early prices.
- Day-before price is missing Sat 19 Sep, Sun 20 Sep, Mon 21 Sep, Tue 22 Sep, Wed 23 Sep: no publication with prices from the day before.
- 8am price + best odds guaranteed is missing Sat 19 Sep: no race-day publication before the first race.
Running profit and loss: our pair against the two favourites
1 point on each of the two at starting price, in the same races. So far our pair is down 195.9 points and the favourites are down 315.0 points: our pair has lost 119.1 points less than backing the favourites.
- Top pick + Danger
- Two favourites
These figures are at starting price. Our picks are often shorter by the off than when we publish them: taken at the day-before price, the same Top pick + Danger returned +11.27% over 17 days (703 races), and +4.19% at the 8am price with best odds guaranteed. Early prices aren't always available, bookmakers can restrict accounts that take them, and past results don't guarantee future ones.
The favourites win more often, as favourites do; ours win at longer prices, so backing our pair has lost about half as much as backing the two favourites. Both lose at starting price, so treat these as a guide to where the model is strongest, not a system.
How we count
- 1 point on every pick at starting price. Each-way is 1 point each way at the race's place terms.
- Four picks in most races: our top pick, the main danger, an each-way bet and an outsider in fields of 8 or more.
- Accuracy is the average −log of the chance each side gave the winner: lower is better. The market has been the more accurate so far, so our fair prices are an opinion, not a promise.
- Results come from the end-of-day results file and are settled automatically; nothing is edited by hand.
By pick type · all settled days
| Pick | Picks | Won | Strike | Placed | Win P/L (SP) | Return | E/W P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Top pick | 864 | 220 | 25.5% | 448 | −84.84 | −9.82% | — |
| Danger | 857 | 159 | 18.6% | 342 | −111.50 | −13.01% | — |
| Each-way | 719 | 63 | 8.8% | 206 | −227.25 | −31.61% | −358.51 |
| Outsider | 642 | 27 | 4.2% | 107 | −246.50 | −38.40% | — |
| Top trends horse | 477 | 75 | 15.7% | 177 | +0.40 | +0.08% | — |
Picks count only horses that ran: a non-runner is void, as a bookmaker settles it. Top pick 864 of 900 races (36 non-runners), Danger 857 (43 non-runners). Each-way and outsider picks are only made in bigger fields.
Day by day
Winners from picks, and win profit at SP, for each pick type. Choose a day to open its racecards.
| Day | Races | Top pick or Dangerours · market's top two | Top pick | Danger | Each-way | Outsider | Accuracyours · market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 10 Oct | 51 | 19/47 40.4% · 57.4% | 14/49 +1.27 | 7/49 −16.54 | 2/45 −32.00 | 1/34 −5.00 | 2.00 · 1.91 |
| Fri 9 Oct | 47 | 18/44 40.9% · 52.3% | 11/46 −10.85 | 9/45 +23.91 | 5/38 −13.92 | 0/36 −36.00 | 2.21 · 2.16 |
| Thu 8 Oct | 45 | 17/42 40.5% · 61.9% | 8/43 −18.94 | 11/43 +4.86 | 3/37 −12.00 | 0/28 −28.00 | 2.19 · 1.81 |
| Wed 7 Oct | 38 | 21/36 58.3% · 55.6% | 14/36 +34.51 | 7/38 −11.51 | 2/32 −24.12 | 1/31 −20.00 | 1.86 · 1.83 |
| Tue 6 Oct | 35 | 14/33 42.4% · 48.5% | 8/35 −10.64 | 6/33 −2.70 | 2/29 −17.17 | 1/24 +5.00 | 2.11 · 1.95 |
| Mon 5 Oct | 54 | 19/49 38.8% · 57.1% | 11/52 −8.22 | 8/52 −26.90 | 4/42 −14.25 | 5/42 +12.50 | 2.16 · 1.90 |
| Sun 4 Oct | 29 | 11/24 45.8% · 62.5% | 9/25 −1.93 | 4/28 −14.39 | 3/19 +10.50 | 0/18 −18.00 | 1.91 · 1.68 |
| Sat 3 Oct | 44 | 20/43 46.5% · 65.1% | 15/44 −6.28 | 5/43 −16.50 | 2/31 −3.00 | 0/29 −29.00 | 1.87 · 1.60 |
| Fri 2 Oct | 47 | 18/42 42.9% · 66.7% | 12/44 −8.52 | 7/45 −13.50 | 2/36 −27.75 | 1/30 −7.00 | 1.99 · 1.81 |
| Thu 1 Oct | 44 | 22/41 53.7% · 31.7% | 11/42 +0.32 | 11/43 +4.38 | 2/29 −13.00 | 0/30 −30.00 | 2.08 · 1.95 |
| Wed 30 Sep | 38 | 12/30 40.0% · 46.7% | 6/33 −8.13 | 8/35 +10.00 | 6/32 +9.38 | 3/28 +5.00 | 2.18 · 2.16 |
| Tue 29 Sep | 34 | 9/32 28.1% · 43.8% | 6/34 −22.24 | 3/32 −21.77 | 6/30 +14.33 | 3/24 +19.00 | 2.16 · 1.84 |
| Mon 28 Sep | 45 | 21/41 51.2% · 43.9% | 12/43 +0.91 | 10/43 +2.20 | 4/35 −2.50 | 0/31 −31.00 | 1.98 · 1.96 |
| Sun 27 Sep | 23 | 14/23 60.9% · 69.6% | 7/23 −5.09 | 7/23 +11.46 | 0/15 −15.00 | 0/16 −16.00 | 1.82 · 1.66 |
| Sat 26 Sep | 53 | 19/49 38.8% · 53.1% | 12/53 +5.75 | 9/49 −5.45 | 2/47 −31.00 | 2/40 −18.00 | 2.29 · 2.03 |
| Fri 25 Sep | 44 | 21/39 53.8% · 51.3% | 13/40 +25.30 | 9/43 −3.34 | 1/35 −26.50 | 1/36 −29.50 | 2.28 · 2.04 |
| Thu 24 Sep | 37 | 17/36 47.2% · 41.7% | 8/37 −7.76 | 9/36 +30.98 | 2/33 −13.00 | 1/30 −15.00 | 2.01 · 1.94 |
| Wed 23 Sep | 36 | 13/33 39.4% · 51.5% | 10/35 +1.43 | 4/34 −23.64 | 2/28 −4.50 | 2/32 +4.00 | 2.24 · 1.91 |
| Tue 22 Sep | 36 | 12/35 34.3% · 45.7% | 8/36 −4.71 | 4/35 −19.97 | 3/25 +4.00 | 1/17 +9.00 | 2.07 · 1.88 |
| Mon 21 Sep | 46 | 19/39 48.7% · 64.1% | 13/43 −0.31 | 8/42 −19.01 | 3/38 −14.25 | 1/31 −23.50 | 2.05 · 1.89 |
| Sun 20 Sep | 21 | 6/18 33.3% · 55.6% | 3/20 −12.63 | 5/19 −6.79 | 2/16 +1.00 | 2/10 +16.00 | 2.08 · 1.67 |
| Sat 19 Sep | 53 | 14/46 30.4% · 34.8% | 9/51 −28.08 | 8/47 +2.72 | 5/47 −2.50 | 2/45 −11.00 | 2.39 · 2.26 |
| Total · 22 days | 900 | 356/822 43.3% · 52.4% | 220/864 −84.84 | 159/857 −111.50 | 63/719 −227.25 | 27/642 −246.50 | 2.10 · 1.92 |
| Fri 18 Sepbefore the pipeline | 47 | — | 12/47 −7.93 | 13/44 +14.65 | 4/40 −5.62 | 0/21 −21.00 | 2.26 · 1.86 |