Racecards › Thurles · Race 1 of 8

11:43 Racing Again November 19th Beginners Chase

Distance: 2m2.5f
Going: Good
Type: Beginners Chase
Runners: 12
Places: 3 places 1/5
Confidence: Solid

STARTS IN

11:43

Race historyFavourites won 7 of 1818 similar races ›

Races: 18 chases over 2m1½f to 2m3½f here since 2021
Ages: 6yo 39% · 8yo 22% · 5yo 22%
Fillies & mares: Won 9% of 11 races against colts and geldingsthey were 28% of the runners · 5 of 12 in today's field
Favourites: Won 7 of 18 (39%)typical winning price 7/2
Trend qualifiers: Harrys Dream 2.2×best fit to the trends of past winners; 1.0× is average
Trainers: W P Mullins 8 · P J Rothwell 2

★ Our verdict

We side with Might Be The One at 10/3. Whispering Willow is the main danger, and Itsaworkinmaniam our each-way bet at 6/1. Trends favour Harrys Dream.

Every horse has a bar: our chance of winning, with the amber mark the market's. Bar past the mark means we make it a bigger chance than its price. OUR is where we rate the horse. Choose a horse for its full profile.

Click a runner for its profile · Our = where we rate it · bar = our win chance, | = the market's · sort from the underlined headings

No(draw)	Our ▾	Horse · jockey · trainer	OR	Wt	Score	Win %ours · market	Key for · against	Fair	Price
11	1	Might Be The OneTop pick5yo mare · form 4-1-2-2-3 · 33 days offJ Darragh OKeeffe T Andrew McNamara	97	11-5	58	28%18%	For: Won over 2m2f, close to this trip	5/2	10/3
12	2	Whispering WillowDanger5yo mare · form 8-2-2-10-6 · 38 days offJ K M Donoghue T Gavin Patrick Cromwell	97	11-5	43	14%21%	For: Ran well at the trip (2nd over 2m1½f)Against: Well beaten last time, 5 weeks ago	6/1	3/1
9	3	I C U In My Dreams6yo mare · form 6-6-1-2-4 · 181 days offJ M P OConnor T Conor Houlihan	–	11-5	25	7%5%	Against: Well beaten last time, 6 months ago	14/1	14/1
7	4	The Monkey Pole6yo gelding · form 5-4-5-5-3 · 11 days offJ Miss E Herbison T N Dooly	–	11-12	20	9%6%	Against: 0 from 7 on the going	9/1	12/1
1	5	Harrys DreamOutsider6yo gelding · form 8-2-4-4-1 · 240 days offJ Anna McGuinness T P J Rothwell	–	11-12	32	6%4%	For: Course winner, a year agoAgainst: Well beaten last time, 8 months ago	16/1	16/1
10	6	Kimy6yo mare · form 5-2-15-6-9 · 24 days offJ D J Gilligan T Thomas Mullins	99	11-5	44	9%24%		10/1	5/2
3	7	Jonny Carrol5yo gelding · form 10-4-8-7-x · 41 days offJ Jordan Gainford T Moses McCabe	–	11-12	17	6%3%	Against: Well beaten last time, 6 weeks ago	16/1	25/1
2	8	ItsaworkinmaniamEach-way7yo gelding · form 8-8-5-6-2 · 38 days offJ Mr E Mahon T Brian M McMahon	98	11-12	30	7%11%	Against: Well beaten last time, 5 weeks ago	12/1	6/1
6	9	Tea In The Park6yo gelding · form 9-7-10-15 · 318 days offJ R A Doyle T Eamon Courtney	–	11-12	16	4%1%	Against: Well beaten last time, 10 months ago	25/1	50/1
8	10	Angelsworknovrtime10yo mare · form 5-12-11-5-4 · 9 days offJ C D Smithers T James Fahey	94	11-5	37	3%4%	Against: 0 from 14 on the going	33/1	16/1
5	11	Space Warrior5yo gelding · form 7-6-6-9-9 · 18 days offJ Simon Torrens T Thomas Mullins	–	11-12	20	4%3%	For: Bred for the tripAgainst: Jockey below par at this trip (-17%)	28/1	25/1
4	12	Kingston Silver5yo gelding · form 9-11-9-12 · 30 days offJ Philip Donovan T W J Lanigan	–	11-12	13	4%1%	Against: Well beaten last time, 4 weeks ago	25/1	50/1

← Back

OUR RANK

5 / 12

6yo gelding
No stall
Trends 2.2×
Outsider

Harrys Dream

Anna McGuinness · P J Rothwell

FAIR PRICE

16/1

market 16/1

★ Our view

Our outsider: a big price at 16/1 with a case. It has won here before a year ago and fits the trends of past winners at this course well. However, it was well beaten last time 8 months ago and comes from a yard out of form. We make it 16/1, the same as the market.

For and against

For

Course winner, a year ago1 from 3 at this course, the last win a year ago.
Strong trends fit (2.2x)In 18 races like this here, runners with its profile won 2.2 times their share (trainer 1.4x, age 6yo 1.3x, sex colts and geldings 1.2x).

Against

Well beaten last time, 8 months agoLast time, 8 months ago: beaten 27L.
Trainer 0 from 16Trainer: no winner from 16 runners in 14 days.

Worth knowing

First time at the tripHas not run over this distance before.
Jockey does well at this trip (+16%)Since 2021 at 2m-2m2: 8 wins from 77 rides, 16% more than the prices said. The market knows this: such rides win just as often as their prices say.
Claimer takes 7lbThe rider claims 7lb.
Back from 240 daysFirst run for 240 days (absences are not marked down).

Race trends

Strong fit2.2×1.0× is an average runner

Age: 6yo7 winners from 44 runners · 1.28× their share

Sex: colts and geldings10 winners from 81 runners · 1.21× their share

Trainer: P J Rothwell2 winners from 7 runners · 1.43× their share

From 18 races like this here: each group's share of the winners against its share of the runners. Past races only; it is a guide to the race, not part of our ratings.

Trainer & jockey

Trainer cold0 winners from 16 runners in 14 days

	14 days	30 days	Year	Course
TrainerP J Rothwell	0%0/16	0%0/48	6%36/632	13%8/64
JockeyAnna McGuinness	50%1/2	20%1/5	7%7/101	67%2/3

Together: 1 from 7 (14%) · at this course 1 from 1 (100%)

Trainer's last 7 days: 0 from 10 · last winner 34 days ago · 14-day profit to £1 level stakes: £-16.00

Jockey by trip	Rides	Won	vs prices
2m-2m2today	77	10% 8/77	+16%
2m3-2m6	59	8% 5/59	+15%
2m7+	19	5% 1/19	few rides

Last two years over jumps. 'vs prices': how many more (or fewer) winners than the starting prices said.

Multicuts (14)

Choose one to see every horse in it today.

Chances

Our win

Our place

Market win

Runs

Wins

240

Days off

-0.07

Time fig

Price check

Market: 16/1
Our fair price: 16/1

Recent form · latest first

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Profile

Sire: Califet (FR)
Dam: Fedaia (IRE)
Damsire: Anabaa (USA)
Trainer: P J Rothwell
Jockey: Anna McGuinness
Run style: Run style due with the race-day pace file

6yo gelding
No stall
Trends 2.2×
Outsider